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Nonferrous Metals Industry Shows Signs of Bounce-Back

Economic Daily 10 June 2015

The monthly report of China’s economy on the performance index of nonferrous metals industry (“the report”), jointly prepared by China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, China’s Economy Industrial Performance Index Research Center of Economic Daily and China’s Economy Performance Monitoring Center of National Bureau of Statistics, showed that in May 2015, the nonferrous metals industry performance index of China’s economy rebounded to “normal" range; the nonferrous metals industry leading index of China’s economy climbed as compared to the preceding month in May. Moderate improvement of nonferrous metals industry performance index from “cold" range to nearly “normal” range indicates the initial rebound of nonferrous industry.

Monitoring shows that the entire nonferrous metals industry has held its ground and started to recover. In May, the nonferrous metals industry performance index of China’s economy was 51.0, up by 1.9% as compared to the preceding month. The performance index has risen for consecutively 3 months and back to “normal” range currently. In the meantime, the nonferrous metals industry leading index of China’s economy was 83.1 in May, up by 1.6% as compared to the preceding month with the same growth rate as the previous month. The nonferrous metals industry leading index included 7 indices, among which 4 indices rose period-on-period and 1 index decreased more slowly as compared to the preceding month.

The report reckons that the nonferrous metals industry may continue its stable upward trajectory. Recently, China implemented a series of growth stabilizing policies, which could be beneficial to nonferrous metal enterprises. Meanwhile, it seems difficult for the industry to achieve fundamental rebound in performance due to the restraints of restraints factors; therefore, the problems of weak demand, excess capacity and low price fluctuation of nonferrous metals are not easy to be eradicated in the shortrun; product inventory and receivables of enterprises will remain in high levels, and financial constraint, financing difficulty and high financing cost will continue to restrain the production and operation of enterprises within a short period of time.

The report preliminarily concludes that, nonferrous metals prices may stabilize in stages and show differentiated trends. Great uncertainty exists in nonferrous metals market due to influences of US dollar index fluctuation and the expectation of rising US dollar interest. Copper price may be stable after drastic fluctuation experienced by the market. With the recent drop in electricity price and electrolytic aluminum cost, the domestic aluminum price will hold its ground at low level and set a new price range. Prices of metals such as lead and zinc experienced a large fluctuation in May, but in general performed better than other metals and are expected to stabilize due to the increasing demand. Nobel metals like gold would keep fluctuating at low levels, and prices of some rare-earth metals may rise.

(Source: Economic Daily)

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