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Stable Economic Growth in 4Q 2014 May Drive a Metal Prices Recovery

Deutsche Bank analysts commented in their recently released 2014 4Q Preview that the price of industrial metals is rebounding, and that base metals are preferred over precious metals.

“With a gradual strengthening of the US dollar, the prices of base metals have shown resilience, which leads us to believe a strong indicator that the low price volatility has ended. Of all industrial metals, we forecast that nickel, lead and zinc in particular will perform better because of the minor impact from China’s real estate market”, said Jorge Beristain and Wilfredo Ortiz, analysts from Deutsche Bank, who are specialists in the metals and mining sector. They also state that industrial metals and precious metals are likely to have a good profit prospects in 2014 3Q. “Among precious metals, silver stocks are expected to be up 29% to US$30 million, and gold stocks are expected to be up 1% to US$28 million.” (Source: Wenhua Financial News)

In addition, Metals Focus, an analysis institution, recently published a research report which indicated that, although the price of silver has not performed very well so far this year, the price may rebound in the future due to a silver shortage. Silver has a wide range of industrial uses and, with industrial demand accounting for more than 50% of the total volume, silver has benefited from China’s stable economic growth.

Speaking on 10 October 2014 at the Seventh China-Germany Economic and Technical Cooperation Forum held in Berlin, Chinese Premier Mr. Li Keqiang reaffirmed his confidence in maintaining the country’s GDP growth at a reasonable level of around 7.5% this year. During his visit to the UK on 16 June 2014, Mr. Li had expressed similar comments in The Times, saying, “China is confident of achieving the economic growth target of 7.5% this year. Meanwhile, the Chinese Government has adjusted various policies to be more functional.” A series of minor stimulus policies subsequently implemented by the Chinese Government has produced a positive effect in the base metals market.

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